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Ice Lab

Tue, Apr 6, 2010·Honda Center, Anaheim

Los Angeles Kings 5, Anaheim Ducks 4 (SO)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 60% of the time.

ANA winsLAK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
LAK011211216022540
ANA252603071421

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:28ANAJason BlakePPAssists: Bobby Ryan, Scott Niedermayer · Snap, 0.21 xG0–1
  2. P1 16:48ANATeemu SelanneAssists: Jason Blake, Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.38 xG0–2
  3. P2 2:01ANABobby RyanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
  4. P2 9:46LAKDustin BrownAssists: Drew Doughty · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
  5. P2 12:19ANATeemu SelannePPAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Saku Koivu · Slap, 0.06 xG1–4
  6. P2 16:41LAKAlex FrolovPPAssists: Dustin Brown, Randy Jones · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–4
  7. P3 7:56LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Anze Kopitar, Ryan Smyth · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–4
  8. P3 18:51LAKMichal HandzusAssists: Justin Williams, Freddy Modin · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. ANA Corey Perry scored
  2. 2. LAK Jarret Stoll stopped
  3. 3. ANA Teemu Selanne stopped
  4. 4. LAK Jack Johnson scored
  5. 5. ANA Saku Koivu stopped
  6. 6. LAK Anze Kopitar scored
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 2:10ANAJames Wisniewski: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 5:03LAKSean O'Donnell: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P2 3:16ANASheldon Brookbank: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 10:57LAKWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min · PPG
  5. P2 14:51ANAJames Wisniewski: Interference2 min · PPG
  6. P3 4:42LAKAnze Kopitar: Interference goalkeeper2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

LAK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← LAK attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bonino won the faceoff against Handzus
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

LAKANA
40Shots on goal21
2.7Expected goals3.3
66Shot attempts41
29Faceoffs won25
3Power plays3
6Penalty minutes6
23Hits30
6Blocked shots18
9Giveaways6
6Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 3.3 xGLAK 2.7 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANALAK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 92/100 · #73 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.92 · 8 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 4% (winner's lowest chance)
LAK 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +43 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 60% of the time.

ANA winsLAK wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − LAK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).