Skip to content
Ice Lab

Wed, Apr 7, 2010·Madison Square Garden, New York

Toronto Maple Leafs 1, New York Rangers 5

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

1

Final

Home

New York Rangers

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 58% of the time.

NYR winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TOR0907111127
NYR3180826532

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:21NYRErik ChristensenAssists: Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
  2. P1 10:26NYRVinny ProspalGWGAssists: Olli Jokinen, Michal Rozsival · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–2
  3. P1 10:56NYRErik ChristensenAssists: Marian Gaborik, Brandon Dubinsky · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–3
  4. P3 8:09TORDion PhaneufAssists: John Mitchell, Carl Gunnarsson · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
  5. P3 10:51NYROlli JokinenAssists: Vinny Prospal, PA Parenteau · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
  6. P3 12:35NYRAaron VorosAssists: Brandon Prust, Artem Anisimov · Snap, 0.13 xG1–5
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 2:25NYRJody Shelley: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:25TORColton Orr: Instigator2 min
  3. P1 2:25TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 2:25TORColton Orr: Misconduct10 min
  5. P1 13:55TORMikhail Grabovski: Hooking2 min
  6. P1 16:30NYRPA Parenteau: Too many men on the ice2 min
  7. P2 2:20TORJamie Lundmark: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 8:14NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 8:14TORJeff Finger: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 8:14NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 9:58TORViktor Stalberg: Roughing2 min
  12. P2 11:25NYRMichal Rozsival: Tripping2 min
  13. P2 0:00NYRBrandon Prust: Roughing2 min
  14. P2 0:00TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 1:02NYRMichal Rozsival: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYR
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackNYR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Christensen won the faceoff against Bozak
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORNYR
27Shots on goal32
3.6Expected goals4.0
58Shot attempts52
25Faceoffs won20
4Power plays4
27Penalty minutes17
37Hits33
10Blocked shots16
1Giveaways2
3Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYR 4.0 xGTOR 3.6 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYRTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 22/100 · #943 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.58 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 57% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50NYR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 58% of the time.

NYR winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (NYR − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).