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Ice Lab

Wed, Apr 7, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Detroit Red Wings 4

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

3

Final

Home

Detroit Red Wings

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 66% of the time.

DET winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ290916324
DET11109315435

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:32DETNiklas KronwallAssists: Todd Bertuzzi, Brad Stuart · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P1 8:58CBJR.J. UmbergerUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
  3. P1 18:33CBJSamuel PahlssonAssists: Mike Blunden, Tomas Kana · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
  4. P3 8:05DETTomas HolmstromPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Deflected, 0.17 xG2–2
  5. P3 8:45DETNicklas LidstromPPAssists: Johan Franzen · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
  6. P3 9:21DETDaniel ClearyGWGAssists: Darren Helm, Patrick Eaves · Snap, 0.10 xG2–4
  7. P3 10:13CBJMike BlundenAssists: Tomas Kana · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 15:33CBJKris Russell: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 15:33DETPatrick Eaves: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 15:33CBJDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 19:03CBJMike Blunden: Boarding2 min
  5. P2 5:29DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 13:42CBJTom Sestito: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 15:07CBJMarc Methot: Holding2 min
  8. P2 15:07DETTodd Bertuzzi: Holding2 min
  9. P3 6:46CBJMike Blunden: Tripping2 min · PPG
  10. P3 8:05CBJR.J. Umberger: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
  11. P3 9:21CBJDerick Brassard: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
43% to win57% to win
← CBJ attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Vermette
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJDET
24Shots on goal35
1.8Expected goals2.6
39Shot attempts57
22Faceoffs won25
1Power plays5
27Penalty minutes9
36Hits27
10Blocked shots7
9Giveaways11
4Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 2.6 xGCBJ 1.8 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 73/100 · #302 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.91 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 23% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 66% of the time.

DET winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).