Skip to content
Ice Lab

Wed, Apr 7, 2010·United Center, Chicago

St. Louis Blues 5, Chicago Blackhawks 6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 56% of the time.

CHI winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
STL11018312530
CHI41121104626

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:22STLDavid PerronAssists: Andy McDonald, T.J. Oshie · Backhand, 0.29 xG1–0
  2. P1 6:17CHIDuncan KeithAssists: Kris Versteeg, Dustin Byfuglien · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
  3. P1 7:13CHIBen EagerAssists: Patrick Kane, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–2
  4. P1 7:43CHIBryan BickellAssists: Andrew Ladd, Jordan Hendry · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
  5. P1 9:25CHIKris VersteegSHAssists: Patrick Sharp · Snap, 0.18 xG1–4
  6. P2 5:54CHIAndrew LaddAssists: Kris Versteeg, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–5
  7. P2 10:56CHIJordan HendryGWGAssists: Brent Sopel, Kris Versteeg · Slap, 0.03 xG1–6
  8. P2 15:52STLRoman PolakAssists: David Backes · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–6
  9. P3 3:43STLErik JohnsonAssists: David Backes, Matt D'Agostini · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–6
  10. P3 13:44STLT.J. OshieAssists: Paul Kariya, Andy McDonald · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–6
  11. P3 19:29STLBrad BoyesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–6
Penalties (19)
  1. P1 5:05CHIBen Eager: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 5:05STLCam Janssen: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 8:07CHIBrent Seabrook: Misconduct10 min
  4. P1 8:07STLBrad Winchester: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 8:07CHIBrent Seabrook: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 8:07CHIBrent Seabrook: Instigator2 min
  7. P1 18:23CHIBen Eager: Holding the stick2 min
  8. P2 0:20STLEric Brewer: Tripping2 min
  9. P2 7:36STLB.J. Crombeen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  10. P2 8:02CHIJonathan Toews: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 18:04STLBrad Winchester: Cross checking2 min
  12. P2 0:00STLEric Brewer: Cross checking2 min
  13. P3 4:39STLPaul Kariya: High sticking2 min
  14. P3 7:20CHIBrent Sopel: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  15. P3 9:44CHIDave Bolland: High sticking2 min
  16. P3 12:26STLB.J. Crombeen: Misconduct10 min
  17. P3 15:00STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Tripping2 min
  18. P3 19:29CHIDustin Byfuglien: Slashing5 min
  19. P3 19:29CHIDustin Byfuglien: Game misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
43% to win57% to win
← STL attackCHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Toews
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLCHI
30Shots on goal26
2.6Expected goals2.9
50Shot attempts52
31Faceoffs won27
6Power plays6
29Penalty minutes42
24Hits15
18Blocked shots14
3Giveaways9
7Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 2.9 xGSTL 2.6 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHISTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 92/100 · #75 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.95 · 9 goals in reach · 4-goal lead cutComeback index 41% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 56% of the time.

CHI winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).