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Ice Lab

Wed, Apr 7, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Colorado Avalanche 4, Edmonton Oilers 5 (OT)

Away

Colorado Avalanche

4

Final

Overtime

Home

Edmonton Oilers

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 58% of the time.

EDM winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
COL370812000435
EDM21411411215545

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:33COLMatt DucheneAssists: John-Michael Liles, Ryan Wilson · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P1 4:57COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Cody McLeod, Ruslan Salei · Snap, 0.29 xG2–0
  3. P1 8:58COLMarek SvatosAssists: Darcy Tucker, Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
  4. P1 13:59EDMShawn HorcoffPPAssists: Tom Gilbert, Ethan Moreau · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
  5. P1 18:12EDMDustin PennerAssists: Tom Gilbert · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–2
  6. P2 6:02EDMMike ComriePPAssists: Patrick O'Sullivan, Aaron Johnson · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
  7. P3 6:10EDMAndrew CoglianoAssists: Dustin Penner · Snap, 0.12 xG3–4
  8. P3 12:58COLMatt HendricksAssists: Cody McLeod, John-Michael Liles · Backhand, 0.35 xG4–4
  9. OT 3:50EDMRyan WhitneyGWGAssists: Dustin Penner, Andrew Cogliano · Snap, 0.15 xG4–5
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 12:16COLRuslan Salei: Tripping2 min · PPG
  2. P2 4:44COLChris Stewart: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  3. P2 12:01EDMDean Arsene: Holding2 min
  4. P3 2:18EDMDean Arsene: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← COL attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Horcoff
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLEDM
35Shots on goal45
3.9Expected goals3.4
60Shot attempts68
30Faceoffs won27
2Power plays2
4Penalty minutes4
19Hits13
11Blocked shots13
13Giveaways22
4Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 3.4 xGCOL 3.9 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMCOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 97/100 · #18 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.26 · 9 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 13% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +33 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 58% of the time.

EDM winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).