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Ice Lab

Thu, Apr 8, 2010·RBC Center, Raleigh

Montréal Canadiens 2, Carolina Hurricanes 5

Away

Montréal Canadiens

2

Final

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 77% of the time.

CAR winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MTL0719116232
CAR01021439533

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 1:24CAREric StaalAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Chad LaRose · Snap, 0.43 xG0–1
  2. P2 4:51CARChad LaRoseAssists: Eric Staal, Tom Kostopoulos · Backhand, 0.20 xG0–2
  3. P2 11:21MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Dominic Moore, Andrei Markov · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
  4. P3 2:42CAREric StaalPPGWGAssists: Jamie McBain, Bryan Rodney · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
  5. P3 3:03MTLMarc-Andre BergeronAssists: Scott Gomez, Brian Gionta · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
  6. P3 17:22CARChad LaRoseAssists: Eric Staal, Jamie McBain · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–4
  7. P3 18:45CAREric StaalENAssists: Chad LaRose · Wrist, 0.71 xG2–5
Penalties (3)
  1. P1 0:11CARJay Harrison: Tripping2 min
  2. P3 1:51MTLTravis Moen: Tripping2 min · PPG
  3. P3 8:13CARTim Conboy: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Brind'Amour
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLCAR
32Shots on goal33
3.0Expected goals4.7
67Shot attempts57
24Faceoffs won24
2Power plays1
2Penalty minutes4
22Hits30
19Blocked shots16
4Giveaways2
6Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 4.7 xGMTL 3.0 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 52/100 · #572 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.10 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 77% of the time.

CAR winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).