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Ice Lab

Thu, Apr 8, 2010·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose

Vancouver Canucks 2, San Jose Sharks 4

Away

Vancouver Canucks

2

Final

Home

San Jose Sharks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 53% of the time.

SJS winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
VAN01009213232
SJS11531006431

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 18:35SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Ryane Clowe, Devin Setoguchi · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
  2. P2 1:57SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Torrey Mitchell · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–2
  3. P2 5:16SJSJoe ThorntonGWGAssists: Dany Heatley, Patrick Marleau · Slap, 0.14 xG0–3
  4. P2 16:41SJSManny MalhotraAssists: Torrey Mitchell, Douglas Murray · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–4
  5. P3 10:26VANPavol DemitraPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
  6. P3 12:03VANAndrew AlbertsPPAssists: Mason Raymond · Tip-in, 0.01 xG2–4
Penalties (26)
  1. P1 10:40VANMatt Pettinger: Holding2 min
  2. P1 19:21VANAlexander Edler: Holding2 min
  3. P2 7:13VANAaron Rome: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 7:13SJSRyane Clowe: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 9:00VANAlexander Edler: Cross checking2 min
  6. P2 11:34SJSDevin Setoguchi: Too many men on the ice2 min
  7. P2 13:58VANMatt Pettinger: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 6:24SJSJamie McGinn: Interference2 min
  9. P3 6:59SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Holding the stick2 min
  10. P3 7:21SJSScott Nichol: Cross checking2 min
  11. P3 8:28SJSJamie McGinn: Misconduct10 min
  12. P3 9:08VANMikael Samuelsson: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 9:08SJSRob Blake: Roughing2 min · PPG
  14. P3 9:08SJSRob Blake: Cross checking2 min
  15. P3 9:08VANMikael Samuelsson: Slashing2 min
  16. P3 9:28VANAlexandre Burrows: Interference2 min
  17. P3 9:28VANAlexandre Burrows: Slashing2 min
  18. P3 9:28SJSJoe Thornton: Roughing2 min
  19. P3 9:46VANRyan Kesler: Fighting5 min
  20. P3 9:46SJSNiclas Wallin: Roughing2 min
  21. P3 9:46SJSNiclas Wallin: Fighting5 min · PPG
  22. P3 9:46SJSNiclas Wallin: Misconduct10 min
  23. P3 9:46SJSRyane Clowe: Misconduct10 min
  24. P3 9:46VANRyan Kesler: Misconduct10 min
  25. P3 18:29VANAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
  26. P3 19:42SJSJason Demers: Broken stick2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0SJS
43% to win57% to win
← VAN attackSJS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Thornton
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANSJS
32Shots on goal31
2.9Expected goals3.1
59Shot attempts55
20Faceoffs won33
5Power plays6
38Penalty minutes58
16Hits22
12Blocked shots12
7Giveaways10
7Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

SJS 3.1 xGVAN 2.9 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

SJSVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 60/100 · #496 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.63 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50SJS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 53% of the time.

SJS winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (SJS − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).