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Ice Lab

Fri, Apr 9, 2010·Madison Square Garden, New York

Philadelphia Flyers 3, New York Rangers 4

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

3

Final

Home

New York Rangers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.

NYR winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI14213010327
NYR2122706425

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:40PHIMike RichardsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
  2. P1 7:22NYRChris DruryPPAssists: Erik Christensen, Dan Girardi · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
  3. P1 10:13NYRJody ShelleyAssists: Brandon Prust, Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
  4. P2 6:58NYRBrandon DubinskyAssists: Marian Gaborik, Erik Christensen · Snap, 0.18 xG1–3
  5. P2 8:26PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Simon Gagne, Daniel Carcillo · Slap, 0.12 xG2–3
  6. P2 14:41PHIMike RichardsAssists: Chris Pronger · Tip-in, 0.03 xG3–3
  7. P2 16:54NYRMarian GaborikGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 0:59NYRAaron Voros: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 5:46PHIDaniel Carcillo: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
  3. P3 5:29PHIBraydon Coburn: Hooking2 min
  4. P3 8:44PHIScott Hartnell: Cross checking2 min
  5. P3 11:14NYRDan Girardi: Fighting5 min
  6. P3 11:14PHIScott Hartnell: Fighting5 min
  7. P3 13:24NYRAaron Voros: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYR
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackNYR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Betts
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHINYR
27Shots on goal25
3.4Expected goals3.3
59Shot attempts60
31Faceoffs won24
2Power plays4
13Penalty minutes9
40Hits29
16Blocked shots13
4Giveaways3
5Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYR 3.3 xGPHI 3.4 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYRPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 73/100 · #298 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.64 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 41% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50NYR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.

NYR winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (NYR − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).