Skip to content
Ice Lab

Fri, Apr 9, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington

Atlanta Thrashers 2, Washington Capitals 5

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

2

Final

Home

Washington Capitals

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 78% of the time.

WSH winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL01128012231
WSH116113318547

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 14:44WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–1
  2. P2 11:15ATLEvgeny ArtyukhinAssists: Arturs Kulda, Jim Slater · Deflected, 0.04 xG1–1
  3. P2 13:07ATLClarke MacArthurSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
  4. P2 16:04WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Alexander Semin · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
  5. P3 9:49WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Alexander Semin, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
  6. P3 12:16WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Eric Belanger, Jeff Schultz · Snap, 0.06 xG2–4
  7. P3 13:05WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alexander Semin, Joe Corvo · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 15:26WSHBrendan Morrison: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 11:52ATLEric Boulton: Elbowing2 min
  3. P2 17:11ATLEvgeny Artyukhin: Hooking2 min
  4. P3 4:07ATLJohnny Oduya: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  5. P3 5:23ATLJim Slater: High sticking2 min
  6. P3 6:32WSHScott Walker: Interference2 min
  7. P3 17:05ATLMark Popovic: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Peverley
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLWSH
31Shots on goal47
2.8Expected goals4.7
59Shot attempts74
29Faceoffs won34
2Power plays5
10Penalty minutes4
16Hits9
17Blocked shots11
5Giveaways3
7Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 4.7 xGATL 2.8 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 59/100 · #511 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.65 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 29% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 78% of the time.

WSH winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).