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Ice Lab

Fri, Apr 9, 2010·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Detroit Red Wings 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 0 (SO)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 75% of the time.

CBJ winsDET wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
DET011011019042145
CBJ0701104001022

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. No goals in regulation or overtime.

Shootout

  1. 1. CBJ Rick Nash scored
  2. 2. DET Pavel Datsyuk scored
  3. 3. CBJ Jakub Voracek stopped
  4. 4. DET Jason Williams stopped
  5. 5. CBJ Kristian Huselius stopped
  6. 6. DET Niklas Kronwall stopped
  7. 7. CBJ R.J. Umberger stopped
  8. 8. DET Todd Bertuzzi scored
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 8:26CBJKris Russell: Cross checking2 min
  2. P1 14:35CBJMike Commodore: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 19:35DETBrian Rafalski: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 10:02DETValtteri Filppula: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 12:14DETDarren Helm: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 3:06CBJAntoine Vermette: Holding2 min
  7. P3 7:26CBJGrant Clitsome: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
  8. P3 15:06DETJohan Franzen: Elbowing2 min
  9. P3 15:06CBJRick Nash: Holding2 min
  10. OT 2:08CBJAntoine Vermette: Holding2 min
  11. OT 4:02DETValtteri Filppula: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DET00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
43% to win57% to win
← DET attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Datsyuk
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DETCBJ
45Shots on goal22
3.8Expected goals2.3
74Shot attempts45
21Faceoffs won36
4Power plays4
10Penalty minutes10
16Hits32
12Blocked shots16
3Giveaways1
4Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 2.3 xGDET 3.8 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJDET

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.

Excitement 11/100 · #1090 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.85 · 0 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
DET 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3OTEnd

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 75% of the time.

CBJ winsDET wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DET), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).