Skip to content
Ice Lab

Sat, Apr 10, 2010·TD Garden, Boston

Carolina Hurricanes 2, Boston Bruins 4

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

2

Final

Home

Boston Bruins

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 84% of the time.

BOS winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CAR01421308235
BOS01831816442

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 0:32BOSDaniel PailleSHAssists: Zdeno Chara, Johnny Boychuk · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
  2. P2 1:21BOSBlake WheelerSHAssists: David Krejci · Snap, 0.22 xG0–2
  3. P2 1:36BOSSteve BeginSHGWGAssists: Dennis Wideman, Daniel Paille · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
  4. P2 14:30CARErik ColeAssists: Patrick Dwyer, Chad LaRose · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG1–3
  5. P2 17:06CARPatrick DwyerAssists: Jerome Samson, Bryan Rodney · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
  6. P3 19:00BOSMilan LucicENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.73 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 1:39CARDrayson Bowman: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 6:16CARChad LaRose: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 8:51BOSAdam McQuaid: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 19:42BOSMatt Hunwick: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 12:18BOSMilan Lucic: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 17:20CAREric Staal: Slashing2 min
  7. P3 2:55CARJerome Samson: High sticking2 min
  8. P3 4:59CARBrett Carson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  9. P3 11:14BOSMatt Hunwick: Holding the stick2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARBOS
35Shots on goal42
2.3Expected goals4.6
56Shot attempts65
21Faceoffs won34
4Power plays5
10Penalty minutes8
19Hits14
12Blocked shots11
5Giveaways7
4Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 4.6 xGCAR 2.3 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSCAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 63/100 · #445 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.14 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 84% of the time.

BOS winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).