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Ice Lab

Sat, Apr 10, 2010·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles

Edmonton Oilers 4, Los Angeles Kings 3 (SO)

Away

Edmonton Oilers

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Los Angeles Kings

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 88% of the time.

LAK winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
EDM161712012416
LAK014025315011355

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 14:37EDMMike ComrieAssists: Tom Gilbert, Ryan Whitney · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–0
  2. P2 3:13EDMMike ComriePPAssists: Ryan Whitney, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
  3. P3 5:24EDMTom GilbertSHAssists: Fernando Pisani, Ryan Potulny · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
  4. P3 6:39LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Ryan Smyth, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.54 xG3–1
  5. P3 12:03LAKJarret StollAssists: Dustin Brown, Jack Johnson · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
  6. P3 17:26LAKMichal HandzusAssists: Rob Scuderi · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. LAK Michal Handzus scored
  2. 2. EDM Ryan Potulny scored
  3. 3. LAK Jack Johnson stopped
  4. 4. EDM Shawn Horcoff scored
  5. 5. LAK Ryan Smyth stopped
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 6:54LAKJeff Halpern: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 7:34EDMRyan Whitney: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
  3. P1 10:54EDMRyan Potulny: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 19:56EDMDustin Penner: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 2:21LAKFreddy Modin: Slashing2 min · PPG
  6. P2 3:52EDMAaron Johnson: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 11:33LAKAlex Frolov: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 13:17EDMRyan Potulny: Interference2 min
  9. P3 4:19EDMCharles Linglet: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 6:12EDMAaron Johnson: Holding2 min · PPG
  11. P3 14:00LAKJarret Stoll: Holding2 min
  12. P3 15:06LAKFreddy Modin: Elbowing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0LAK
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackLAK attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Horcoff
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMLAK
16Shots on goal55
2.5Expected goals5.5
33Shot attempts101
19Faceoffs won42
5Power plays6
12Penalty minutes10
20Hits29
18Blocked shots10
7Giveaways13
5Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

LAK 5.5 xGEDM 2.5 xG
0123456P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

LAKEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 89/100 · #119 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.92 · 6 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50LAK 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +40 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 88% of the time.

LAK winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (LAK − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).