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Ice Lab

Sat, Apr 10, 2010·Centre Bell, Montreal

Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

4

Final

Overtime

Home

Montréal Canadiens

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 86% of the time.

MTL winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
TOR181711013428
MTL2141901301337

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:14MTLAndrei MarkovAssists: Benoit Pouliot · Backhand, 0.24 xG0–1
  2. P1 9:12TORChristian HansonAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Viktor Stalberg · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
  3. P1 16:17MTLBrian GiontaPPAssists: Scott Gomez, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–2
  4. P2 11:55TORViktor StalbergAssists: Tyler Bozak, Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
  5. P2 18:23MTLMarc-Andre BergeronAssists: Andrei Markov, Scott Gomez · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
  6. P3 3:32TORChristian HansonSHAssists: John Mitchell, Carl Gunnarsson · Backhand, 0.04 xG3–3
  7. OT 2:06TORDion PhaneufGWGAssists: Christian Hanson, John Mitchell · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 12:40MTLTomas Plekanec: Cross checking2 min
  2. P1 16:05TORWayne Primeau: High sticking2 min · PPG
  3. P1 17:27TORDion Phaneuf: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 5:58TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 14:59TORLuca Caputi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  6. P3 2:23TORLuca Caputi: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 2:23TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 2:23MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackMTL attack →
  1. Press play, or drag along the timeline.
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORMTL
28Shots on goal37
1.2Expected goals3.3
46Shot attempts74
30Faceoffs won31
1Power plays5
12Penalty minutes4
36Hits15
18Blocked shots14
11Giveaways7
1Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 3.3 xGTOR 1.2 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 75/100 · #268 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.99 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 20% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 86% of the time.

MTL winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).