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Ice Lab

Sat, Apr 10, 2010·Prudential Center, Newark

New York Islanders 1, New Jersey Devils 7

Away

New York Islanders

1

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 91% of the time.

NJD winsNYI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYI060716119
NJD313213211737

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:54NJDDainius ZubrusAssists: Paul Martin, Travis Zajac · Deflected, 0.02 xG0–1
  2. P1 14:18NJDZach PariseGWGAssists: Colin White, Travis Zajac · Backhand, 0.41 xG0–2
  3. P1 15:48NJDDean McAmmondAssists: Rod Pelley, Mike Mottau · Snap, 0.03 xG0–3
  4. P2 11:16NJDPatrik EliasPPAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Andy Greene · Tip-in, 0.23 xG0–4
  5. P2 19:11NJDBrian RolstonPPAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Travis Zajac · Slap, 0.06 xG0–5
  6. P3 8:47NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Andy Greene, Travis Zajac · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–6
  7. P3 13:10NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: John Tavares, Kyle Okposo · Snap, 0.22 xG1–6
  8. P3 18:24NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Paul Martin, Zach Parise · Backhand, 0.01 xG1–7
Penalties (17)
  1. P1 2:31NYISean Bergenheim: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 3:41NJDDavid Clarkson: Slashing2 min
  3. P1 3:41NYIDylan Reese: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 16:30NJDRob Niedermayer: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 0:11NYIRichard Park: Interference2 min
  6. P2 5:41NYIMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 5:41NJDRod Pelley: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 9:31NYITrevor Gillies: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
  9. P2 15:06NJDPatrik Elias: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  10. P2 17:23NYITim Jackman: Roughing2 min · PPG
  11. P3 4:25NJDPierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond: Fighting5 min
  12. P3 4:25NYITrevor Gillies: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  13. P3 4:25NJDDavid Clarkson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  14. P3 4:25NYITrevor Gillies: Instigator2 min
  15. P3 4:25NYITrevor Gillies: Fighting5 min
  16. P3 4:25NYITrevor Gillies: Misconduct10 min
  17. P3 12:17NJDDainius Zubrus: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← NYI attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Park
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYINJD
19Shots on goal37
1.3Expected goals4.2
39Shot attempts61
25Faceoffs won32
3Power plays5
34Penalty minutes20
16Hits10
9Blocked shots9
6Giveaways12
3Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 4.2 xGNYI 1.3 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDNYI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 13/100 · #1063 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.50 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
NYI 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 91% of the time.

NJD winsNYI wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).