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Ice Lab

Sat, Apr 10, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta

Pittsburgh Penguins 0, Atlanta Thrashers 1

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

0

Final

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.

ATL winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PIT09011013033
ATL041909122

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 9:26ATLBryan LittleGWGAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Vyacheslav Kozlov · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
Penalties (17)
  1. P1 4:27ATLArturs Kulda: Interference2 min
  2. P1 9:36PITSidney Crosby: Cross checking2 min
  3. P1 11:05ATLBryan Little: Interference2 min
  4. P1 16:07PITEric Godard: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 16:07PITMike Rupp: Misconduct10 min
  6. P2 1:59ATLEvander Kane: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 1:59PITMatt Cooke: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 2:52ATLMark Popovic: Tripping2 min
  9. P2 7:25ATLEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 7:25PITEric Godard: Fighting5 min
  11. P2 9:26PITTyler Kennedy: Slashing2 min
  12. P2 12:20ATLRon Hainsey: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  13. P2 13:35PITEvgeni Malkin: Cross checking2 min
  14. P2 16:17ATLRich Peverley: Hooking2 min
  15. P2 18:52PITMike Rupp: Slashing2 min
  16. P3 16:12PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking2 min
  17. P3 19:03PITRuslan Fedotenko: Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← PIT attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Crosby
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITATL
33Shots on goal22
2.2Expected goals2.1
59Shot attempts43
25Faceoffs won28
5Power plays7
34Penalty minutes20
19Hits15
10Blocked shots15
5Giveaways6
11Takeaways14

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 2.1 xGPIT 2.2 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 11/100 · #1086 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.87 · 1 goal in reachComeback index 53% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.

ATL winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).