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Ice Lab

Sat, Apr 10, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa

Florida Panthers 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (SO)

Away

Florida Panthers

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 74% of the time.

TBL winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
FLA18110112020332
TBL113210012021437

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:11TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Kurtis Foster, Martin St. Louis · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P1 18:39FLAStephen WeissPPAssists: Nathan Horton, Bryan McCabe · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
  3. P2 5:28TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Zenon Konopka · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
  4. P2 10:24TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Steven Stamkos, Kurtis Foster · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
  5. P2 11:46FLAMichael FrolikAssists: Nathan Horton, Dmitry Kulikov · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–3
  6. P3 8:08FLANathan HortonSHAssists: Stephen Weiss, Keith Ballard · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. TBL Steven Stamkos scored
  2. 2. FLA Stephen Weiss stopped
  3. 3. TBL Vincent Lecavalier stopped
  4. 4. FLA Nathan Horton stopped
  5. 5. TBL Teddy Purcell stopped
  6. 6. FLA Michael Frolik stopped
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 2:33FLAMichael Frolik: Hooking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 7:38FLAStephen Weiss: Holding2 min
  3. P1 14:18FLARostislav Olesz: Slashing2 min
  4. P1 18:12TBLMatt Lashoff: Hooking2 min · PPG
  5. P1 19:47TBLVincent Lecavalier: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 4:16FLABryan Allen: Hooking2 min · PPG
  7. P2 7:27TBLMike Lundin: Holding2 min
  8. P3 5:57FLANick Tarnasky: Fighting5 min
  9. P3 5:57TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 6:18FLAJason Garrison: Holding2 min
  11. P3 9:12TBLMatt Walker: Tripping2 min
  12. P3 14:53TBLKurtis Foster: Cross checking2 min
  13. OT 4:55TBLKurtis Foster: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
43% to win57% to win
← FLA attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Weiss
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLATBL
32Shots on goal37
1.7Expected goals3.0
53Shot attempts73
24Faceoffs won38
6Power plays5
15Penalty minutes17
8Hits17
26Blocked shots11
6Giveaways8
5Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 3.0 xGFLA 1.7 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 85/100 · #160 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.13 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 45% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +29 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 74% of the time.

TBL winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).