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Ice Lab

Sat, Apr 10, 2010·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville

St. Louis Blues 1, Nashville Predators 2 (SO)

Away

St. Louis Blues

1

Final

Shootout

Home

Nashville Predators

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.

NSH winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
STL01207112030134
NSH01001617031236

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P3 5:26NSHJason ArnottAssists: Shea Weber · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
  2. P3 10:18STLDavid BackesAssists: Brad Boyes, Paul Kariya · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. STL David Perron stopped
  2. 2. NSH Steve Sullivan stopped
  3. 3. STL Andy McDonald stopped
  4. 4. NSH Martin Erat scored
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 3:53NSHMartin Erat: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 18:57STLBrad Boyes: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 12:53STLDavid Backes: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 16:02STLDavid Backes: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  5. P3 5:31NSHMartin Erat: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← STL attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Goc
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLNSH
34Shots on goal36
1.9Expected goals2.3
62Shot attempts62
34Faceoffs won25
2Power plays3
6Penalty minutes4
19Hits21
16Blocked shots21
11Giveaways8
10Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 2.3 xGSTL 1.9 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHSTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 40/100 · #729 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.40 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.

NSH winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).