Sat, Apr 10, 2010·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Dallas Stars 4, Minnesota Wild 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 04 | 211 | 110 | 01 | 1 | 426 |
| MIN | 211 | 09 | 17 | 00 | 0 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:52MINMikko KoivuPPAssists: Brent Burns, Cam Barker · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 10:01MINMikko KoivuAssists: Andrew Brunette, Greg Zanon · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 4:27DALBrenden MorrowPPAssists: Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 7:56DALSteve OttAssists: Toby Petersen · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 0:09MINCasey WellmanAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Cal Clutterbuck · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 2:52DALSteve OttAssists: Philip Larsen, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
- 2. DAL Brad Richards stopped
- 3. MIN Brent Burns stopped
- 4. DAL Mike Modano stopped
- 5. MIN Antti Miettinen stopped
- 6. DAL Jere Lehtinen stopped
- 7. MIN Casey Wellman stopped
- 8. DAL Jamie Benn scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:19DALBrian Sutherby: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 5:19MINDerek Boogaard: Misconduct10 min
- P1 5:19DALBrian Sutherby: Misconduct10 min
- P1 5:38DALMike Ribeiro: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:11MINChuck Kobasew: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:20MINCody Almond: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:20MINCody Almond: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:20DALMark Fistric: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:41DALSteve Ott: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:58MINBrent Burns: Interference2 min
- P3 17:15MINNate Prosser: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Modano
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).