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Ice Lab

Sat, Apr 10, 2010·General Motors Place, Vancouver

Calgary Flames 3, Vancouver Canucks 7

Away

Calgary Flames

3

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 57% of the time.

VAN winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY116112112340
VAN39110310729

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:39VANRick RypienAssists: Matt Pettinger, Steve Bernier · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P1 7:44VANKevin BieksaAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
  3. P1 9:43VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–3
  4. P1 13:38CGYNiklas HagmanAssists: Matt Stajan, Ales Kotalik · Slap, 0.08 xG1–3
  5. P2 3:51CGYNiklas HagmanAssists: Robyn Regehr, Matt Stajan · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
  6. P2 6:17VANRyan KeslerGWGAssists: Mason Raymond, Jannik Hansen · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–4
  7. P3 3:27VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–5
  8. P3 3:47VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin, Christian Ehrhoff · Snap, 0.20 xG2–6
  9. P3 17:04CGYRene BourqueAssists: Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–6
  10. P3 17:32VANKevin BieksaAssists: Alexander Edler, Alexandre Burrows · Slap, 0.02 xG3–7
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 9:44CGYJamal Mayers: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 9:44VANRick Rypien: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 4:10CGYDavid Moss: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 11:52CGYCory Sarich: Interference2 min
  5. P2 17:03VANRick Rypien: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 19:48VANNolan Baumgartner: High sticking2 min
  7. P2 0:00CGYJarome Iginla: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 0:00VANRyan Kesler: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 7:22CGYAles Kotalik: Interference2 min
  10. P3 10:55CGYAdam Pardy: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Sedin
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYVAN
40Shots on goal29
2.8Expected goals3.2
62Shot attempts50
25Faceoffs won27
2Power plays4
15Penalty minutes11
16Hits15
12Blocked shots11
3Giveaways10
10Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 3.2 xGCGY 2.8 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 76/100 · #267 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.93 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 57% of the time.

VAN winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).