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Ice Lab

Sat, Apr 10, 2010·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose

Phoenix Coyotes 2, San Jose Sharks 3 (SO)

Away

Phoenix Coyotes

2

Final

Shootout

Home

San Jose Sharks

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 55% of the time.

SJS winsPHX wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
PHX0811216032229
SJS11011307003330

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:04SJSDevin SetoguchiAssists: Joe Pavelski, Douglas Murray · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
  2. P2 1:04PHXLee StempniakUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG1–1
  3. P2 12:41SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Dany Heatley, Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
  4. P3 1:47PHXMatthew LombardiAssists: Shane Doan, Wojtek Wolski · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. SJS Joe Pavelski scored
  2. 2. PHX Lee Stempniak stopped
  3. 3. SJS Ryane Clowe scored
  4. 4. PHX Lauri Korpikoski scored
  5. 5. SJS Dany Heatley stopped
  6. 6. PHX Radim Vrbata scored
  7. 7. SJS Dan Boyle stopped
  8. 8. PHX Adrian Aucoin stopped
  9. 9. SJS Logan Couture scored
  10. 10. PHX Shane Doan stopped
Penalties (2)
  1. P1 4:29PHXIlya Bryzgalov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  2. P3 7:24PHXSami Lepisto: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHX00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0SJS
43% to win57% to win
← PHX attackSJS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Hanzal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHXSJS
29Shots on goal30
2.5Expected goals2.2
55Shot attempts60
19Faceoffs won20
0Power plays2
4Penalty minutes0
17Hits26
17Blocked shots13
12Giveaways18
9Takeaways16

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

SJS 2.2 xGPHX 2.5 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

SJSPHX

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.

Excitement 47/100 · #644 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.50 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
PHX 100%5050%50SJS 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 55% of the time.

SJS winsPHX wins

Simulated goal difference (SJS − PHX), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).