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Ice Lab

Sun, Apr 11, 2010·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

New York Rangers 1, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (SO)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 80% of the time.

PHI winsNYR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
NYR1409010021125
PHI018012115022247

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:27NYRJody ShelleyAssists: Michal Rozsival, Artem Anisimov · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–0
  2. P3 6:54PHIMatt CarlePPAssists: Jeff Carter, Daniel Brière · Backhand, 0.28 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. PHI Daniel Brière scored
  2. 2. NYR Erik Christensen stopped
  3. 3. PHI Mike Richards stopped
  4. 4. NYR PA Parenteau scored
  5. 5. PHI Claude Giroux scored
  6. 6. NYR Olli Jokinen stopped
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 6:49NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 11:33PHIDaniel Brière: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 2:03NYRAaron Voros: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 2:03PHIIan Laperriere: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 8:31NYRPA Parenteau: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 10:22PHILukas Krajicek: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 13:18NYRMichal Rozsival: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 13:18PHIDaniel Brière: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 14:46NYRErik Christensen: Slashing2 min
  10. P3 5:39NYRPA Parenteau: Interference2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← NYR attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Carter
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYRPHI
25Shots on goal47
2.0Expected goals4.0
47Shot attempts78
33Faceoffs won32
2Power plays4
15Penalty minutes11
31Hits37
14Blocked shots12
8Giveaways13
7Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 4.0 xGNYR 2.0 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHINYR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 38/100 · #768 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.29 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 24% (winner's lowest chance)
NYR 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 80% of the time.

PHI winsNYR wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).