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Ice Lab

Sun, Apr 11, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington

Boston Bruins 4, Washington Capitals 3 (SO)

Away

Boston Bruins

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Washington Capitals

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.

WSH winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
BOS28010116042438
WSH29013113020337

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:23WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Tom Poti, John Carlson · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
  2. P1 5:29BOSMichael RyderAssists: Milan Lucic, Zach Hamill · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
  3. P1 14:55BOSMichael RyderPPAssists: Dennis Wideman · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
  4. P1 15:14WSHEric BelangerAssists: Boyd Gordon, Matt Bradley · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
  5. P3 9:59WSHMike KnubleAssists: Mike Green, Brooks Laich · Tip-in, 0.01 xG2–3
  6. P3 15:42BOSMarco SturmAssists: David Krejci · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. BOS Michael Ryder stopped
  2. 2. WSH Boyd Gordon stopped
  3. 3. BOS David Krejci scored
  4. 4. WSH Matt Bradley stopped
  5. 5. BOS Miroslav Satan scored
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 2:43BOSTim Thomas: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 2:43BOSTim Thomas: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 2:43WSHJason Chimera: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  4. P1 6:01WSHJason Chimera: Misconduct10 min
  5. P1 7:45BOSAndrew Bodnarchuk: Holding2 min
  6. P1 14:27WSHAlex Ovechkin: High sticking2 min · PPG
  7. P2 6:52WSHJohn Carlson: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 11:57WSHJason Chimera: Cross checking2 min
  9. P2 14:37BOSDennis Wideman: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Begin won the faceoff against Steckel
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSWSH
38Shots on goal37
2.7Expected goals2.8
66Shot attempts68
26Faceoffs won27
3Power plays2
8Penalty minutes18
11Hits15
22Blocked shots16
5Giveaways9
6Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 2.8 xGBOS 2.7 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 80/100 · #213 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.15 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 12% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +37 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.

WSH winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).