Skip to content
Ice Lab

Sun, Apr 11, 2010·Prudential Center, Newark

Buffalo Sabres 1, New Jersey Devils 2

Away

Buffalo Sabres

1

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 74% of the time.

NJD winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BUF081807123
NJD09111114234

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 1:10BUFThomas VanekAssists: Derek Roy, Tim Kennedy · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
  2. P2 6:27NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Paul Martin · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
  3. P3 19:57NJDJamie LangenbrunnerPPGWGAssists: Zach Parise, Brian Rolston · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
  1. P2 1:22BUFTyler Myers: Holding2 min
  2. P3 0:07NJDDean McAmmond: High sticking2 min
  3. P3 10:33BUFTyler Ennis: Tripping2 min
  4. P3 13:52NJDPatrik Elias: Roughing2 min
  5. P3 13:52BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min
  6. P3 17:37BUFSteve Montador: Holding2 min
  7. P3 18:59BUFMike Grier: Holding2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00McAmmond won the faceoff against Gaustad
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFNJD
23Shots on goal34
1.0Expected goals2.1
32Shot attempts49
28Faceoffs won20
1Power plays4
10Penalty minutes4
13Hits16
6Blocked shots6
1Giveaways16
4Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 2.1 xGBUF 1.0 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 39/100 · #754 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.33 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 34% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +47 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 74% of the time.

NJD winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).