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Ice Lab

Sun, Apr 11, 2010·Honda Center, Anaheim

Edmonton Oilers 2, Anaheim Ducks 7

Away

Edmonton Oilers

2

Final

Home

Anaheim Ducks

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 84% of the time.

ANA winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM11208111231
ANA315116314745

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:04ANARyan CarterAssists: Kyle Chipchura, Troy Bodie · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P1 2:36ANASteve EmingerAssists: Nick Bonino · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
  3. P1 8:59EDMMike ComrieAssists: Patrick O'Sullivan, Ryan Whitney · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
  4. P1 13:24ANAMatt BeleskeyGWGAssists: Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–3
  5. P2 0:16ANATeemu SelannePPAssists: Saku Koivu, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
  6. P3 2:50EDMRyan WhitneyAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Tom Gilbert · Snap, 0.05 xG2–4
  7. P3 9:34ANARyan CarterAssists: Steve Eminger · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–5
  8. P3 11:42ANAGeorge ParrosUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG2–6
  9. P3 16:46ANAKyle ChipchuraSHAssists: Saku Koivu, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–7
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 17:11ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 0:00EDMShawn Horcoff: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P2 12:57EDMRyan Jones: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 12:57ANAMike Brown: Kneeing2 min
  5. P2 14:54EDMRyan Potulny: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 19:54EDMRyan Potulny: Interference2 min
  7. P3 16:33ANAAaron Ward: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Horcoff
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMANA
31Shots on goal45
3.1Expected goals5.8
47Shot attempts66
28Faceoffs won23
2Power plays3
8Penalty minutes6
13Hits17
10Blocked shots5
8Giveaways11
5Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 5.8 xGEDM 3.1 xG
0123456P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANAEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 51/100 · #590 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.79 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 84% of the time.

ANA winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).