Thu, Oct 7, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 17 | 010 | 111 | 228 |
| TOR | 212 | 05 | 17 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:42TORTim BrentAssists: Dion Phaneuf · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 8:57TORPhil KesselAssists: Tyler Bozak, Mike Komisarek · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 12:19MTLDustin BoydUnassisted · Snap, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 1:36TORClarke MacArthurGWGAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Mikhail Grabovski · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 2:28MTLJeff HalpernAssists: Maxim Lapierre, Benoit Pouliot · Snap, 0.31 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:02MTLLars Eller: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:57MTLMathieu Darche: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:20TORDion Phaneuf: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:44TORClarke MacArthur: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:15TORLuke Schenn: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:12MTLMathieu Darche: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:57MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:06MTLTom Pyatt: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gomez won the faceoff against Brent
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Kostitsyn – Eller9:20
xG 0.48–0.23 (67%)attempts 15–8goals 0–2
- Moen – Boyd – Pyatt5:00
xG 0.19–0.08 (69%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Darche2:00
xG 0.06–0.04 (62%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Pouliot5:42
xG 0.02–0.02 (61%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpacek – Subban11:40
xG 0.96–0.33 (74%)attempts 19–8goals 1–1
- Gill – Gorges15:25
xG 0.99–0.38 (73%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
- O'Byrne – Picard9:35
xG 0.41–0.29 (58%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin9:18
xG 0.33–0.10 (77%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Zigomanis – Orr – Brown2:39
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Sjostrom – Armstrong – Brent11:14
xG 0.09–0.23 (28%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Kessel – Bozak11:04
xG 0.44–1.25 (26%)attempts 10–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Komisarek – Gunnarsson9:13
xG 0.28–0.36 (44%)attempts 10–9goals 2–1
- Kaberle – Schenn13:15
xG 0.37–0.51 (42%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Phaneuf10:09
xG 0.13–0.49 (21%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).