Thu, Oct 7, 2010·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 09 | 210 | 18 | 327 |
| PIT | 015 | 09 | 27 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:51PHIDaniel BrièrePPAssists: Mike Richards, Ville Leino · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 17:15PHIBlair BettsAssists: Darroll Powe, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P3 0:44PITTyler KennedyAssists: Paul Martin, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 4:55PHIClaude GirouxSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–1
- P3 5:14PITAlex GoligoskiPPAssists: Zbynek Michalek, Chris Kunitz · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 12:09PITMatt Cooke: Holding2 min
- P1 17:08PHISean O'Donnell: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:45PITDeryk Engelland: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:35PHIJody Shelley: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 12:00PHIBraydon Coburn: Interference2 min
- P2 15:00PITBrooks Orpik: Interference2 min
- P3 3:15PHIAndrej Meszaros: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:00PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:00PHIDaniel Carcillo: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:00PITMax Talbot: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:47PHIBlair Betts: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Hartnell – Leino11:03
xG 0.58–0.14 (81%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Shelley – Betts – Powe4:06
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Zherdev – Giroux – van Riemsdyk7:04
xG 0.28–0.47 (37%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Carter – Richards – Carcillo8:18
xG 0.13–0.78 (14%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Meszaros10:58
xG 0.55–0.20 (73%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Timonen – Coburn12:55
xG 0.85–0.54 (61%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
- Timonen – Bartulis2:08
xG 0.05–0.02 (67%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Kennedy – Letestu8:08
xG 0.73–0.40 (64%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Comrie – Malkin – Crosby2:00
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Comrie – Malkin – Tangradi5:32
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Adams – Rupp – Talbot5:02
xG 0.08–0.07 (53%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Goligoski9:26
xG 0.79–0.26 (75%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Orpik – Michalek11:38
xG 0.91–0.54 (63%)attempts 16–22goals 0–0
- Martin – Letang13:41
xG 0.41–0.33 (55%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).