Thu, Oct 7, 2010·Hartwall Areena, HelsinkiNeutral site
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 110 | 314 | 07 | 431 |
| MIN | 17 | 111 | 111 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:33MINGuillaume LatendresseAssists: Mikko Koivu, Kyle Brodziak · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 19:50CARBrandon SutterPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Jamie McBain · Tip-in, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 5:58CARAnton BabchukAssists: Erik Cole, Zac Dalpe · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 9:52MINMatt CullenPPAssists: Martin Havlat · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–2
- P2 11:16CARJussi JokinenPPAssists: Joe Corvo, Joni Pitkanen · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 18:03CARBrandon SutterGWGAssists: Patrick Dwyer, Tim Gleason · Deflected, 0.30 xG4–2
- P3 16:39MINBrent BurnsPPAssists: Antti Miettinen, Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:38MINGreg Zanon: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:15MINCam Barker: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:47CARJay Harrison: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:15CARTim Gleason: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:29MINCam Barker: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:39MINMatt Cullen: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:42MINGreg Zanon: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:51CAREric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:41CARAnton Babchuk: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:11CARJamie McBain: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Jokinen – Skinner11:55
xG 0.91–0.18 (83%)attempts 19–8goals 0–1
- Cole – LaRose – Staal10:46
xG 0.62–0.29 (68%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Sutter – Bowman8:20
xG 0.54–0.43 (56%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Kostopoulos – O'Sullivan – Dalpe4:17
xG 0.12–0.04 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPitkanen – Babchuk3:56
xG 0.55–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Gleason – McBain10:53
xG 0.51–0.18 (73%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Gleason – Babchuk2:30
xG 0.17–0.16 (52%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Cullen – Havlat – Clutterbuck8:11
xG 0.28–0.32 (47%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Brunette – Miettinen – Koivu9:50
xG 0.45–0.55 (45%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Staubitz – Latendresse3:20
xG 0.01–0.12 (8%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Madden – Kobasew – Nystrom6:55
xG 0.24–0.36 (40%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Falk11:41
xG 0.56–0.49 (53%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Stoner – Barker5:17
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Zanon – Barker7:34
xG 0.15–0.57 (21%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).