Thu, Oct 7, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Colorado Avalanche 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 111 | 111 | 114 | 02 | 338 |
| COL | 115 | 211 | 014 | 11 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:37CHIBryan BickellPPAssists: Marian Hossa, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 16:30COLChris StewartUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 6:13COLMatt DucheneAssists: Adam Foote, Kyle Cumiskey · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 13:51COLPaul StastnyPPAssists: John-Michael Liles, Chris Stewart · Snap, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 18:24CHIMarian HossaAssists: Patrick Sharp, Tomas Kopecky · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 10:25CHIPatrick SharpPPAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 3:40COLPaul StastnyGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, John-Michael Liles · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:36COLMark Olver: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:22COLKyle Quincey: Interference2 min
- P1 14:06COLAdam Foote: Interference2 min
- P2 3:45COLMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:30CHIJack Skille: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:29COLDaniel Winnik: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:45CHIBrent Seabrook: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:05CHIJohn Scott: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:54COLMatt Duchene: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:08COLKyle Cumiskey: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestPisani – Sharp – Kane5:37
xG 0.39–0.14 (73%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Dowell – Skille – Stalberg3:00
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Bolland – Bickell – Brouwer8:03
xG 0.04–0.23 (14%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Hossa – Kopecky – Toews7:55
xG 0.15–0.34 (30%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook18:45
xG 0.92–0.64 (59%)attempts 17–18goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Leddy14:49
xG 0.53–0.55 (49%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestYip – Winnik – O'Reilly8:47
xG 0.58–0.18 (76%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Jones – Duchene8:59
xG 0.39–0.50 (44%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Stastny – Stewart – Galiardi11:44
xG 0.26–0.79 (25%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Quincey9:46
xG 0.39–0.16 (70%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Foote – Wilson2:22
xG 0.01–0.13 (8%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Liles – Wilson13:37
xG 0.63–0.80 (44%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).