Thu, Oct 7, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Calgary Flames 0, Edmonton Oilers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 09 | 018 | 010 | 037 |
| EDM | 119 | 07 | 37 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:04EDMGilbert BrulePPGWGAssists: Ryan Whitney · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 1:24EDMJordan EberleSHAssists: Jim Vandermeer · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–2
- P3 2:43EDMAles HemskyAssists: Sam Gagner, Ladislav Smid · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P3 5:04EDMShawn HorcoffPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ryan Whitney · Snap, 0.09 xG0–4
Penalties (18)
- P1 5:53EDMRyan Jones: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:53CGYStefan Meyer: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 6:55CGYAdam Pardy: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:46CGYJay Bouwmeester: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 10:30CGYBrendan Morrison: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:34CGYAdam Pardy: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:48EDMTaylor Hall: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:52EDMTheo Peckham: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:52CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:09EDMRyan Jones: Holding2 min
- P2 14:09EDMColin Fraser: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:09CGYBrett Sutter: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:40CGYJay Bouwmeester: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:25EDMMagnus Paajarvi: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:57CGYNiklas Hagman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:58EDMKurtis Foster: Boarding2 min
- P3 17:40EDMSteve MacIntyre: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:40CGYRaitis Ivanans: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Gagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestMorrison – Hagman – Bourque7:44
xG 0.57–0.33 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Tanguay10:18
xG 0.67–0.69 (50%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Ivanans – Meyer – Sutter6:51
xG 0.34–0.41 (45%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Jackman – Glencross – Backlund7:21
xG 0.15–0.22 (40%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pardy2:08
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Pardy – Brodie10:57
xG 0.68–0.51 (57%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- White – Brodie2:04
xG 0.16–0.04 (81%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Eberle – Hall9:56
xG 0.79–0.48 (62%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Penner – Gagner10:18
xG 0.71–0.46 (60%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Fraser – MacIntyre – Jones4:22
xG 0.12–0.26 (33%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Brule – Cogliano – Paajarvi6:46
xG 0.18–0.45 (29%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Whitney2:47
xG 0.41–0.03 (93%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Foster – Whitney10:19
xG 0.52–0.50 (51%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Vandermeer – Peckham11:43
xG 0.85–0.89 (49%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).