Fri, Oct 8, 2010·Hartwall Areena, HelsinkiNeutral site
Minnesota Wild 1, Carolina Hurricanes 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 118 | 012 | 04 | 08 | 0 | 142 |
| CAR | 011 | 110 | 015 | 01 | 1 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:23MINAndrew BrunettePPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Cam Barker · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 2:00CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. CAR Jeff Skinner scored
- 2. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
- 3. CAR Jussi Jokinen stopped
- 4. MIN Brent Burns stopped
- 5. CAR Tuomo Ruutu stopped
- 6. MIN Antti Miettinen stopped
Penalties (15)
- P1 4:07CARChad LaRose: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:07MINMikko Koivu: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:08CARTom Kostopoulos: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:08MINEric Nystrom: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:18MINNick Schultz: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:46CAREric Staal: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:20CARJoni Pitkanen: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:20MINChuck Kobasew: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:39MINNick Schultz: Interference2 min
- P2 10:22CARDrayson Bowman: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 13:51CAREric Staal: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:43MINClayton Stoner: Interference2 min
- P3 12:37MINGreg Zanon: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:30MINMikko Koivu: Hooking2 min
- OT 4:53CARJamie McBain: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBrunette – Miettinen – Koivu11:38
xG 1.06–0.05 (96%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Cullen – Havlat – Clutterbuck8:16
xG 0.58–0.20 (75%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Latendresse – Wellman6:15
xG 0.40–0.49 (45%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Madden – Kobasew – Nystrom7:06
xG 0.05–0.16 (24%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Burns15:13
xG 1.68–0.09 (95%)attempts 22–6goals 0–0
- Zanon – Stoner3:06
xG 0.42–0.29 (60%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Barker – Falk2:15
xG 0.12–0.05 (70%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Jokinen – Skinner7:33
xG 0.18–0.04 (82%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Cole – LaRose – Staal11:50
xG 0.56–0.98 (36%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – O'Sullivan – Dalpe4:05
xG 0.07–0.60 (11%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Sutter – Bowman8:04
xG 0.07–0.63 (10%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – McBain12:07
xG 0.51–0.46 (53%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Pitkanen – McBain2:11
xG 0.05–0.04 (55%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Harrison – Babchuk8:12
xG 0.10–0.21 (32%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).