Fri, Oct 8, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta
Washington Capitals 2, Atlanta Thrashers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 16 | 09 | 116 | 231 |
| ATL | 111 | 211 | 19 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:18WSHBrooks LaichAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Alexander Semin · Snap, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 7:57ATLEvander KaneUnassisted · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 15:43ATLAndrew LaddAssists: Johnny Oduya, Niclas Bergfors · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 18:54ATLEvander KaneGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–3
- P3 8:16WSHMike KnubleAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Mike Green · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 15:00ATLFreddy ModinAssists: Nik Antropov · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 12:29ATLNik Antropov: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:09ATLRich Peverley: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:09WSHJohn Erskine: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:09WSHEric Fehr: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:09ATLEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:33WSHTom Poti: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:42WSHJohn Erskine: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:54WSHMike Green: Penalty shot covering puck in crease0 min
- P3 4:07ATLZach Bogosian: Boarding2 min
- P3 11:41ATLEvander Kane: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:13WSHJohn Carlson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fleischmann won the faceoff against Peverley
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Ovechkin – Backstrom14:32
xG 0.76–0.33 (69%)attempts 21–8goals 1–1
- Laich – Fleischmann – Semin8:54
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Bradley – Hendricks – Steckel6:15
xG 0.29–0.12 (70%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Chimera – Fehr – Johansson7:19
xG 0.17–0.40 (30%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Green15:10
xG 0.72–0.18 (80%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Poti – Carlson12:11
xG 0.42–0.22 (65%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Poti – Green2:27
xG 0.07–0.28 (21%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Bergfors – Little7:56
xG 0.43–0.13 (76%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Eager – Burmistrov4:47
xG 0.19–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Modin – Thorburn – Burmistrov2:42
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Stewart – Peverley – Kane10:56
xG 0.27–0.41 (40%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSopel – Hainsey11:36
xG 0.50–0.19 (73%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien13:25
xG 0.32–0.60 (35%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
- Oduya – Bogosian17:14
xG 0.36–0.89 (29%)attempts 8–22goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).