Sat, Oct 9, 2010·O2 Czech Republic, PragueNeutral site
Phoenix Coyotes 5, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 112 | 315 | 110 | 537 |
| BOS | 016 | 010 | 216 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:59PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Adrian Aucoin, Ed Jovanovski · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–0
- P2 1:58PHXTaylor PyattAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 15:02PHXScottie UpshallGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–0
- P2 19:43PHXEric BelangerPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–0
- P3 3:33BOSNathan HortonAssists: Milan Lucic, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 9:03BOSNathan HortonPPAssists: Zdeno Chara, Michael Ryder · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 18:13PHXRadim VrbataENAssists: Ed Jovanovski · Wrist, 0.59 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:02PHXShane Doan: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:26PHXEd Jovanovski: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:16PHXRadim Vrbata: Interference2 min
- P2 18:45BOSBrad Marchand: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:41BOSGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:41PHXVernon Fiddler: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:34PHXEric Belanger: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:11BOSGregory Campbell: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Fiddler – Stempniak11:07
xG 0.77–0.33 (70%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal11:53
xG 0.70–0.35 (67%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Prucha – Upshall – Korpikoski8:27
xG 0.44–0.51 (47%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- Doan – Belanger – Wolski10:17
xG 0.18–0.56 (25%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Schlemko14:40
xG 0.91–0.42 (69%)attempts 21–15goals 1–0
- Aucoin – Jovanovski14:48
xG 0.79–0.77 (51%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
- Lepisto – Ekman-Larsson17:43
xG 0.75–0.83 (47%)attempts 13–27goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestRecchi – Bergeron – Wheeler12:48
xG 0.53–0.35 (60%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Marchand8:14
xG 0.30–0.32 (49%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic11:20
xG 0.53–0.76 (41%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
- Ryder – Paille – Seguin9:20
xG 0.25–0.67 (27%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk16:47
xG 0.78–0.43 (65%)attempts 24–10goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Stuart10:09
xG 0.44–0.41 (52%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Ference – Stuart6:04
xG 0.10–0.11 (47%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).