Sat, Oct 9, 2010·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Montréal Canadiens 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 011 | 27 | 327 |
| PIT | 013 | 112 | 113 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:24MTLMichael CammalleriAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Andrei Kostitsyn · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 0:40PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Sidney Crosby, Alex Goligoski · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 8:42PITMark LetestuAssists: Matt Cooke, Paul Martin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 17:48MTLMichael CammalleriAssists: Jeff Halpern, Josh Gorges · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 18:12MTLScott GomezGWGAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Brian Gionta · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:38PITMike Rupp: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:54MTLMaxim Lapierre: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:54PITMike Comrie: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:54MTLMaxim Lapierre: Charging2 min
- P1 11:11PITMike Rupp: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:40MTLJosh Gorges: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:06PITMike Comrie: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 0:00MTLRyan O'Byrne: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:08MTLScott Gomez: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:02PITMax Talbot: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:05MTLLars Eller: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:48MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Letestu won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Cammalleri – Plekanec – Kostitsyn7:35
xG 0.26–0.25 (52%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Halpern – Lapierre – Eller5:07
xG 0.07–0.06 (54%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Pouliot8:17
xG 0.23–0.40 (36%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Moen – Boyd – Pyatt8:03
xG 0.21–0.50 (30%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Gorges12:15
xG 0.66–0.57 (54%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- O'Byrne – Picard8:52
xG 0.07–0.17 (28%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Spacek – Subban10:40
xG 0.19–0.38 (34%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAdams – Rupp – Talbot5:32
xG 0.21–0.08 (73%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby6:43
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Comrie – Malkin – Tangradi7:54
xG 0.40–0.31 (56%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Kunitz – Malkin – Crosby2:24
xG 0.02–0.02 (54%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Letang12:46
xG 0.53–0.36 (59%)attempts 17–7goals 1–1
- Martin – Goligoski2:30
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Lovejoy7:26
xG 0.35–0.27 (57%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).