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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 9, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Philadelphia Flyers 1, St. Louis Blues 2 (OT)

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

1

Final

Overtime

Home

St. Louis Blues

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.

STL winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
PHI090611401130
STL160110612225

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 15:48STLBrad BoyesPPAssists: Erik Johnson, Alexander Steen · Deflected, 0.25 xG0–1
  2. P3 2:15PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Matt Carle, Ville Leino · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
  3. OT 1:47STLCarlo ColaiacovoGWGAssists: Alexander Steen, Barret Jackman · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
Penalties (25)
  1. P1 3:20PHIKimmo Timonen: Holding2 min
  2. P1 10:46PHIBraydon Coburn: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 11:28STLAlexander Steen: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 11:50STLAndy McDonald: Hooking2 min
  5. P1 14:37PHIClaude Giroux: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  6. P1 15:04PHIBraydon Coburn: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 3:14PHISean O'Donnell: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 8:48STLRoman Polak: Hooking2 min
  9. P2 13:07PHIOskars Bartulis: Delaying game2 min
  10. P2 15:56PHIScott Hartnell: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  11. P2 15:56STLBrad Winchester: Roughing2 min
  12. P2 15:56STLCam Janssen: Charging2 min
  13. P2 15:56STLBrad Winchester: Charging2 min
  14. P2 15:56PHIScott Hartnell: Instigator2 min
  15. P2 15:56PHIScott Hartnell: Fighting5 min
  16. P2 15:56STLBrad Winchester: Fighting5 min
  17. P2 15:56PHIScott Hartnell: Misconduct10 min
  18. P3 5:21STLDavid Perron: Boarding2 min
  19. P3 6:25PHIClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min
  20. P3 11:00PHINikolay Zherdev: Tripping2 min
  21. P3 14:09STLMatt D'Agostini: Roughing2 min
  22. P3 14:09PHIDaniel Brière: Roughing2 min
  23. P3 15:13PHIVille Leino: Holding2 min
  24. P3 18:00STLEric Brewer: Roughing2 min
  25. P3 18:00PHIScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
47% to win53% to win
← PHI attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against McClement
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHISTL
30Shots on goal25
3.2Expected goals3.1
59Shot attempts59
22Faceoffs won29
5Power plays9
41Penalty minutes23
13Hits22
15Blocked shots15
6Giveaways5
6Takeaways7

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Philadelphia Flyers

Forward lines

  1. bestZherdev – Giroux – van Riemsdyk4:49

    xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0

  2. Carter – Richards – van Riemsdyk2:12

    xG 0.17–0.06 (76%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0

  3. Carter – Richards – Carcillo4:05

    xG 0.21–0.31 (40%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0

  4. Brière – Hartnell – Leino6:52

    xG 0.15–0.42 (26%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestO'Donnell – Coburn2:20

    xG 0.33–0.02 (95%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0

  2. Coburn – Carle2:17

    xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0

  3. Carle – Meszaros7:10

    xG 0.25–0.03 (90%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0

St. Louis Blues

Forward lines

  1. bestMcDonald – Oshie – Berglund5:40

    xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0

  2. Winchester – Janssen – D'Agostini3:03

    xG 0.14–0.05 (73%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

  3. McClement – Steen – Crombeen6:08

    xG 0.32–0.55 (37%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0

  4. Boyes – Backes – Perron6:36

    xG 0.14–0.70 (17%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestJackman – Johnson7:53

    xG 0.51–0.16 (76%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0

  2. Brewer – Polak14:03

    xG 0.91–1.09 (45%)attempts 14–20goals 0–0

  3. Colaiacovo – Pietrangelo9:41

    xG 0.07–0.55 (12%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 3.1 xGPHI 3.2 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 56/100 · #512 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.70 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 46% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +28 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.

STL winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).