Sat, Oct 9, 2010·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Anaheim Ducks 1, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 09 | 119 | 09 | 137 |
| NSH | 016 | 312 | 121 | 449 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:10NSHMarcel GocAssists: Jordin Tootoo, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 5:25ANASaku KoivuAssists: Teemu Selanne, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 8:33NSHSteve SullivanPPGWGAssists: Ryan Suter, Shea Weber · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 16:12NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Shea Weber, Steve Sullivan · Tip-in, 0.32 xG1–3
- P3 12:39NSHDavid LegwandAssists: J-P Dumont, Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:16NSHRyan Suter: Holding2 min
- P1 6:58ANAAaron Voros: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:05NSHFrancis Bouillon: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:05ANATroy Bodie: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00ANAPaul Mara: Holding2 min
- P2 8:07ANASheldon Brookbank: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 11:10NSHJoel Ward: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:25NSHFrancis Bouillon: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:18ANABobby Ryan: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:23NSHKevin Klein: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:23ANATodd Marchant: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:05ANACorey Perry: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 17:12ANALuca Sbisa: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:08ANAJason Blake: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Koivu – Blake11:07
xG 0.53–0.16 (77%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Parros – Voros – Chipchura4:15
xG 0.15–0.25 (37%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Perry – Beleskey2:07
xG 0.08–0.38 (18%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Marchant – Bodie – Beleskey4:53
xG 0.05–0.39 (12%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Visnovsky – Sbisa2:42
xG 0.10–0.05 (66%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Mara – Fowler14:51
xG 0.52–0.66 (44%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Brookbank – Sbisa7:27
xG 0.16–0.32 (33%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSullivan – O'Reilly – Hornqvist8:28
xG 0.88–0.23 (79%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Dumont – Goc – Tootoo3:33
xG 0.25–0.04 (85%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Legwand – Smithson – Ward7:34
xG 0.14–0.12 (55%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Erat – Lombardi – Wilson6:57
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber14:31
xG 0.97–0.24 (80%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Franson11:19
xG 0.86–0.29 (75%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Bouillon – Klein12:04
xG 0.56–0.46 (55%)attempts 6–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).