Sat, Oct 9, 2010·United Center, Chicago
Detroit Red Wings 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 16 | 111 | 326 |
| CHI | 112 | 18 | 08 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:59DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Johan Franzen, Todd Bertuzzi · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 19:57CHIBrent SeabrookPPAssists: Marian Hossa, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 1:12DETTodd BertuzziAssists: Brad Stuart, Brian Rafalski · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 1:49CHIBryan BickellAssists: Dave Bolland, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 6:01DETValtteri FilppulaPPGWGAssists: Jiri Hudler, Nicklas Lidstrom · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 18:34DETRuslan Salei: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:29CHIBrent Seabrook: Interference2 min
- P2 6:39DETBrian Rafalski: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:40CHIMarian Hossa: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:34CHINick Boynton: Holding2 min
- P3 4:49CHIDave Bolland: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:07DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P3 9:53DETJakub Kindl: Holding2 min
- P3 13:06DETTodd Bertuzzi: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Filppula – Franzen10:04
xG 0.59–0.45 (57%)attempts 13–12goals 2–1
- Holmstrom – Datsyuk – Zetterberg9:40
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Eaves – Miller – Helm5:44
xG 0.08–0.17 (32%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Modano – Cleary – Hudler6:57
xG 0.07–0.17 (28%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Rafalski12:09
xG 0.74–0.34 (68%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Salei – Rafalski3:25
xG 0.06–0.10 (37%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Salei – Kindl7:11
xG 0.07–0.21 (24%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDowell – Skille – Stalberg3:30
xG 0.25–0.03 (90%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Hossa – Kopecky – Toews10:57
xG 0.31–0.31 (50%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Pisani – Brouwer – Pirri5:33
xG 0.05–0.12 (30%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Bolland – Bickell – Kane9:47
xG 0.34–0.48 (42%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook16:35
xG 0.53–0.33 (62%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Boynton – Hjalmarsson14:38
xG 0.32–0.47 (41%)attempts 10–17goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).