Sun, Oct 10, 2010·O2 Czech Republic, PragueNeutral site
Boston Bruins 3, Phoenix Coyotes 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 015 | 212 | 110 | 337 |
| PHX | 08 | 08 | 013 | 029 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:11BOSMilan LucicGWGAssists: Nathan Horton, David Krejci · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 19:27BOSNathan HortonAssists: Mark Recchi, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P3 9:14BOSTyler SeguinAssists: Michael Ryder, Tim Thomas · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:18PHXShane Doan: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:01BOSShawn Thornton: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:28PHXPetr Prucha: Elbowing2 min
- P3 12:58PHXVernon Fiddler: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:23PHXKeith Yandle: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:26PHXEd Jovanovski: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:26BOSMilan Lucic: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:26PHXEd Jovanovski: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:26BOSMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Krejci – Lucic9:42
xG 0.54–0.12 (82%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Wheeler – Caron8:00
xG 0.37–0.10 (79%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Marchand10:54
xG 0.26–0.51 (34%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Recchi – Ryder – Seguin8:29
xG 0.49–0.94 (34%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk13:27
xG 0.73–0.32 (69%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Stuart14:57
xG 0.88–0.50 (64%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Hunwick4:00
xG 0.22–0.08 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Upshall – Stempniak3:21
xG 0.85–0.14 (86%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Prucha – Upshall – Korpikoski5:59
xG 0.24–0.07 (78%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Wolski – Hanzal4:42
xG 0.10–0.04 (72%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Whitney – Doan – Belanger2:06
xG 0.07–0.02 (74%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLepisto – Ekman-Larsson10:27
xG 0.60–0.39 (60%)attempts 7–9goals 0–2
- Yandle – Schlemko16:52
xG 0.56–0.63 (47%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
- Aucoin – Jovanovski15:45
xG 0.30–1.16 (21%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).