Sun, Oct 10, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Florida Panthers 2, Edmonton Oilers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 011 | 212 | 05 | 228 |
| EDM | 03 | 34 | 06 | 313 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:33EDMDustin PennerAssists: Tom Gilbert, Sam Gagner · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 5:34EDMRyan JonesAssists: Jim Vandermeer · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 6:11FLAMarty ReasonerAssists: Steve Bernier · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 7:20EDMShawn HorcoffGWGAssists: Taylor Hall, Theo Peckham · Deflected, 0.20 xG1–3
- P2 17:51FLAMarty ReasonerAssists: David Booth, Steve Bernier · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:26EDMShawn Horcoff: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:06FLAStephen Weiss: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:27EDMLadislav Smid: Holding2 min
- P2 10:11EDMColin Fraser: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:16FLACory Stillman: Interference2 min
- P2 13:16EDMGilbert Brule: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:05EDMTom Gilbert: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthias won the faceoff against Cogliano
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Olesz – Santorelli10:31
xG 1.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 18–2goals 0–0
- Stillman – Dvorak – Matthias10:53
xG 0.49–0.13 (80%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Hordichuk – Bernier4:14
xG 0.22–0.09 (70%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Weiss – Booth – Frolik10:15
xG 0.28–0.50 (36%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Wideman13:19
xG 1.48–0.49 (75%)attempts 19–6goals 1–2
- Weaver – Garrison13:35
xG 0.48–0.21 (70%)attempts 17–5goals 0–1
- McCabe – Kulikov14:49
xG 0.54–0.57 (49%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Horcoff – Eberle – Hall11:58
xG 0.32–0.28 (53%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
- Fraser – Stortini – Jones7:34
xG 0.22–0.27 (46%)attempts 2–12goals 1–1
- Hemsky – Penner – Gagner11:58
xG 0.71–1.20 (37%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Brule – Cogliano – Paajarvi9:01
xG 0.23–0.81 (22%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Smid14:44
xG 0.66–0.60 (52%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
- Whitney – Peckham2:21
xG 0.08–0.02 (79%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Foster – Whitney12:53
xG 0.37–0.67 (36%)attempts 5–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).