Mon, Oct 11, 2010·Prudential Center, Newark
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 115 | 18 | 18 | 331 |
| NJD | 08 | 08 | 115 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:56PITAlex GoligoskiAssists: Eric Tangradi · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 2:32PITMark LetestuPPGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Paul Martin · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 8:20NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Jason Arnott · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 19:49PITPaul MartinENAssists: Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.69 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:13NJDIlya Kovalchuk: Holding2 min
- P1 12:39NJDHenrik Tallinder: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:09PITTyler Kennedy: Holding2 min
- P2 0:33NJDPatrik Elias: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:18NJDAndy Greene: Holding2 min
- P2 8:56NJDColin White: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:13PITMike Rupp: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:10NJDZach Parise: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Letestu – Tangradi9:32
xG 0.48–0.11 (82%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Comrie – Kunitz – Crosby5:28
xG 0.34–0.16 (67%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Adams – Dupuis – Rupp2:08
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby3:22
xG 0.05–0.03 (63%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Letang11:03
xG 0.47–0.33 (59%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Michalek – Goligoski3:39
xG 0.15–0.03 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Letang5:54
xG 0.26–0.25 (52%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestArnott – Elias – Kovalchuk3:33
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Kovalchuk – Clarkson3:50
xG 0.15–0.05 (75%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Arnott – Elias – Pelley2:26
xG 0.05–0.07 (41%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Langenbrunner – Parise – Zajac4:10
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Taormina11:44
xG 0.48–0.31 (61%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Fraser – Urbom9:18
xG 0.15–0.22 (40%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Greene14:32
xG 0.38–0.55 (41%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).