Mon, Oct 11, 2010·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
New York Rangers 4, New York Islanders 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 112 | 213 | 18 | 433 |
| NYI | 29 | 111 | 312 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:47NYIBlake ComeauUnassisted · Snap, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 13:57NYRBrandon DubinskyPPAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Michal Rozsival · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 16:47NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Blake Comeau, Mike Mottau · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 8:28NYRMichael Del ZottoPPAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Artem Anisimov · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 13:01NYRDan GirardiAssists: Alex Frolov, Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P2 19:39NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: Trent Hunter, Frans Nielsen · Snap, 0.60 xG3–3
- P3 12:46NYRArtem AnisimovAssists: Marian Gaborik, Ryan Callahan · Snap, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 15:36NYIPA ParenteauPPAssists: James Wisniewski, Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–4
- P3 16:34NYIBlake ComeauPPGWGAssists: Josh Bailey, Mike Mottau · Snap, 0.29 xG4–5
- P3 19:41NYIFrans NielsenENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.62 xG4–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 8:03NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:03NYIZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:41NYRErik Christensen: Interference2 min
- P1 11:08NYIDoug Weight: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 13:24NYIMark Eaton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 7:47NYINino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 10:55NYITrent Hunter: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:47NYINino Niederreiter: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:50NYRMarc Staal: Interference2 min
- P3 10:26NYRMarian Gaborik: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 14:15NYRRyan Callahan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:01NYRMarc Staal: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00NYRSteve Eminger: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Christensen won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov9:46
xG 0.52–0.21 (72%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Frolov – Stepan3:59
xG 0.13–0.11 (54%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Fedotenko – Avery – Stepan9:19
xG 0.51–0.65 (44%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Gaborik – Frolov – Christensen8:58
xG 0.00–0.68 (0%)attempts 1–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Girardi3:58
xG 0.23–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Girardi – Del Zotto11:39
xG 1.03–0.88 (54%)attempts 20–12goals 1–2
- Rozsival – Staal16:04
xG 0.34–0.31 (53%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Comeau – Bailey9:11
xG 0.63–0.12 (83%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Hunter – Nielsen – Moulson8:57
xG 0.68–0.27 (71%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Sim – Konopka – Moulson2:26
xG 0.03–0.03 (53%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Weight – Grabner – Niederreiter9:42
xG 0.25–0.82 (24%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEaton – Martinek16:49
xG 1.35–0.32 (81%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Mottau – Wisniewski14:01
xG 0.70–0.42 (62%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Jurcina – MacDonald10:43
xG 0.18–1.14 (14%)attempts 6–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).