Mon, Oct 11, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Anaheim Ducks 1, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 96% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 04 | 14 | 06 | 114 |
| STL | 215 | 222 | 116 | 553 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:53STLDavid BackesAssists: David Perron, Brad Boyes · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 3:59STLAndy McDonaldGWGAssists: T.J. Oshie, Patrik Berglund · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 5:10STLB.J. CrombeenSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–3
- P2 6:08ANASaku KoivuPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 15:51STLMatt D'AgostiniAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Slap, 0.02 xG1–4
- P3 17:18STLMatt D'AgostiniPPAssists: T.J. Oshie, Carlo Colaiacovo · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–5
Penalties (37)
- P1 7:14ANAPaul Mara: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:03ANAKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:03STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 3:03STLRyan Reaves: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 4:54STLDavid Perron: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 6:35ANATeemu Selanne: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:00ANASaku Koivu: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:16STLMatt D'Agostini: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:23ANAGeorge Parros: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:00ANAPaul Mara: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 17:00STLBrad Boyes: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:00STLBarret Jackman: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:00STLBarret Jackman: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:00STLDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:00ANABobby Ryan: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:00ANARyan Getzlaf: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:00ANAPaul Mara: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:00ANABobby Ryan: Instigator2 min
- P2 17:00ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:00ANABobby Ryan: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:00ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:48STLB.J. Crombeen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 6:48ANATroy Bodie: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 9:44STLEric Brewer: Instigator2 min
- P3 9:44STLEric Brewer: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:44STLEric Brewer: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:44ANAAaron Voros: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:59ANAMatt Beleskey: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:59ANASheldon Brookbank: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:59ANASheldon Brookbank: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:59ANABrendan Mikkelson: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:59STLErik Johnson: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:59STLBrad Winchester: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:59STLBrad Winchester: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:30STLT.J. Oshie: Holding2 min
- P3 17:06ANACam Fowler: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 18:20ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McClement won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Selanne – Koivu – Blake5:29
xG 0.00–0.33 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan11:43
xG 0.23–0.58 (28%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Marchant – Bodie – Beleskey5:04
xG 0.04–0.71 (6%)attempts 1–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Brookbank – Fowler3:13
xG 0.07–0.12 (38%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Brookbank – Mikkelson4:27
xG 0.13–0.37 (26%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Festerling5:46
xG 0.02–0.27 (8%)attempts 3–8goals 0–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Steen – Crombeen7:50
xG 0.80–0.13 (86%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- McDonald – Oshie – Berglund5:44
xG 0.73–0.08 (90%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Boyes – Backes – Perron6:43
xG 0.31–0.05 (87%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Pietrangelo6:01
xG 0.77–0.03 (96%)attempts 11–1goals 1–0
- Brewer – Polak10:24
xG 0.83–0.18 (83%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Jackman – Johnson10:19
xG 0.52–0.20 (72%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 96% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).