Mon, Oct 11, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington
Ottawa Senators 2, Washington Capitals 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 013 | 110 | 17 | 01 | 231 |
| WSH | 111 | 16 | 06 | 13 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:38WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Brooks Laich, Eric Fehr · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 9:57OTTJarkko RuutuAssists: Matt Carkner, Chris Neil · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 11:18WSHEric FehrAssists: Matt Hendricks, Boyd Gordon · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 7:20OTTRyan ShannonAssists: Peter Regin · Snap, 0.19 xG2–2
- OT 4:28WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: John Carlson, Jeff Schultz · Snap, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:57WSHTomas Fleischmann: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:05WSHMike Knuble: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:19OTTPeter Regin: Interference2 min
- P1 16:18OTTMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:30WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:25WSHAlex Ovechkin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:32OTTChris Kelly: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:29WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference2 min
- P3 3:35OTTAlex Kovalev: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:13OTTPeter Regin: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:58WSHJohn Erskine: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:58OTTJarkko Ruutu: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Neil – Kelly8:32
xG 0.74–0.08 (90%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Fisher – Foligno – Smith5:42
xG 0.25–0.24 (51%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Kovalev – Fisher – Foligno2:18
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Regin – Shannon7:01
xG 0.37–0.37 (50%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLee – Karlsson4:50
xG 0.47–0.09 (83%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Carkner – Karlsson3:11
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Phillips9:53
xG 0.54–0.36 (60%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Laich – Fleischmann – Semin6:04
xG 0.26–0.23 (54%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Knuble – Ovechkin – Backstrom11:22
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Bradley – Hendricks – Gordon2:25
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Chimera – Fehr – Johansson4:46
xG 0.23–0.51 (31%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Green10:25
xG 0.61–0.33 (65%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Erskine – Green2:03
xG 0.00–0.33 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Erskine – Carlson9:35
xG 0.21–0.55 (27%)attempts 6–7goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).