Tue, Oct 12, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Colorado Avalanche 5, Detroit Red Wings 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 19 | 114 | 213 | 02 | 1 | 538 |
| DET | 14 | 29 | 114 | 01 | 0 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:34DETJohan FranzenAssists: Todd Bertuzzi · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 16:56COLDavid JonesAssists: John-Michael Liles, Mark Olver · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–1
- P2 2:50DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Nicklas Lidstrom · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 13:02DETJohan FranzenAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Todd Bertuzzi · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 19:11COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: David Jones · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 4:43COLDaniel WinnikAssists: Adam Foote · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 7:52DETPatrick EavesSHAssists: Darren Helm, Nicklas Lidstrom · Snap, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 11:24COLDavid JonesAssists: Brandon Yip, Matt Duchene · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
- 2. COL Milan Hejduk stopped
- 3. DET Jiri Hudler stopped
- 4. COL Chris Stewart stopped
- 5. DET Todd Bertuzzi stopped
- 6. COL Matt Duchene stopped
- 7. DET Johan Franzen stopped
- 8. COL David Jones stopped
- 9. DET Mike Modano stopped
- 10. COL Ryan O'Reilly stopped
- 11. DET Henrik Zetterberg stopped
- 12. COL Brandon Yip scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:59DETBrad Stuart: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:12COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:12DETDoug Janik: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:33COLBrandon Yip: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:54DETValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:43DETDaniel Cleary: Interference2 min
- P3 7:39DETRuslan Salei: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestJones – Yip – Duchene5:14
xG 0.25–0.12 (67%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Winnik – Galiardi – O'Reilly2:48
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Winnik – McLeod – Duchene3:49
xG 0.10–0.08 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Winnik – Galiardi – Duchene2:59
xG 0.10–0.14 (41%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Liles2:12
xG 0.10–0.02 (85%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Liles – Quincey2:21
xG 0.17–0.11 (62%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Hannan – Wilson2:36
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHolmstrom – Datsyuk – Zetterberg14:52
xG 0.65–0.33 (66%)attempts 21–13goals 0–0
- Cleary – Datsyuk – Zetterberg2:03
xG 0.09–0.02 (82%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Filppula – Franzen12:23
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 12–8goals 2–1
- Eaves – Miller – Helm5:44
xG 0.08–0.12 (40%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – Stuart16:08
xG 0.65–0.42 (61%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
- Salei – Kronwall6:22
xG 0.24–0.10 (70%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Salei – Kindl10:09
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).