Tue, Oct 12, 2010·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Atlanta Thrashers 1, Los Angeles Kings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 012 | 19 | 011 | 132 |
| LAK | 09 | 013 | 313 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:26ATLChris ThorburnUnassisted · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P3 3:53LAKRyan SmythAssists: Justin Williams, Anze Kopitar · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
- P3 6:10LAKJarret StollGWGAssists: Ryan Smyth, Willie Mitchell · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 19:30LAKRyan SmythENAssists: Justin Williams, Jarret Stoll · Wrist, 0.55 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:55LAKRyan Smyth: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:14LAKMichal Handzus: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:19ATLNiclas Bergfors: Holding2 min
- P1 11:00LAKJack Johnson: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 19:25LAKRob Scuderi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:48ATLEvander Kane: Holding2 min
- P3 9:26LAKBrad Richardson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Handzus won the faceoff against Antropov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Bergfors – Little11:50
xG 0.68–0.62 (52%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Stewart – Peverley – Kane6:36
xG 0.60–0.56 (52%)attempts 10–7goals 0–2
- Modin – Antropov – Dawes7:59
xG 0.10–0.10 (49%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Eager – Burmistrov10:54
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Sopel – Hainsey11:24
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
- Oduya – Bogosian11:59
xG 0.81–0.79 (51%)attempts 14–19goals 1–1
- Sopel – Enstrom2:13
xG 0.02–0.04 (30%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Loktionov14:08
xG 0.90–0.49 (65%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Smyth – Williams – Stoll10:27
xG 0.49–0.31 (61%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Handzus – Ponikarovsky – Simmonds7:39
xG 0.22–0.04 (84%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Richardson – Westgarth – Schenn4:54
xG 0.06–0.50 (11%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Doughty14:46
xG 1.07–0.68 (61%)attempts 21–15goals 2–0
- Muzzin – Drewiske9:06
xG 0.43–0.45 (49%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Scuderi – Johnson16:44
xG 0.42–0.70 (38%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).