Wed, Oct 13, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
New Jersey Devils 1, Buffalo Sabres 0 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 015 | 011 | 08 | 11 | 135 |
| BUF | 01 | 015 | 08 | 00 | 024 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- OT 0:53NJDIlya KovalchukGWGAssists: Matt Taormina, Jamie Langenbrunner · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:57BUFSteve Montador: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 8:40BUFPatrick Kaleta: Charging2 min
- P1 12:18BUFCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:18NJDMark Fraser: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:28NJDDavid Clarkson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 19:35NJDTravis Zajac: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:55BUFPatrick Kaleta: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mair won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestArnott – Langenbrunner – Elias6:30
xG 0.32–0.07 (82%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Mair – Clarkson4:28
xG 0.37–0.17 (69%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Parise – Zajac14:09
xG 0.95–0.82 (54%)attempts 22–17goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Clarkson – Pelley3:24
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFraser – Urbom12:12
xG 0.77–0.16 (83%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Urbom2:55
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- White – Taormina14:19
xG 0.48–0.58 (45%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHecht – Roy – Stafford5:26
xG 0.52–0.44 (54%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Roy – Stafford – Ennis5:37
xG 0.26–0.20 (57%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Hecht – Connolly – Vanek6:55
xG 0.09–0.09 (50%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Roy – Vanek – Ennis2:25
xG 0.02–0.13 (15%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Rivet – Sekera12:24
xG 0.44–0.47 (48%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Morrisonn – Myers10:57
xG 0.24–0.36 (40%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Leopold – Montador17:34
xG 0.59–0.72 (45%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).