Wed, Oct 13, 2010·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 17 | 35 | 02 | 414 |
| PIT | 25 | 111 | 09 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:18TORColton OrrAssists: Luke Schenn, Mike Brown · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 11:27PITChris KunitzPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Alex Goligoski · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 17:33PITMax TalbotAssists: Matt Cooke, Tyler Kennedy · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 3:01TORClarke MacArthurPPAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Dion Phaneuf · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 5:31TORFrancois BeaucheminAssists: Luke Schenn, Mike Zigomanis · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P2 10:30TORClarke MacArthurGWGAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolay Kulemin · Snap, 0.12 xG4–2
- P2 19:16PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Ben Lovejoy, Matt Cooke · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:28TORLuke Schenn: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 2:54PITEric Tangradi: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:28PITMatt Cooke: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:08TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:08PITDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:03TORDion Phaneuf: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 6:52TORClarke MacArthur: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:39PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Sjostrom – Armstrong – Brent12:14
xG 0.33–0.47 (42%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Versteeg – Brown – Bozak3:05
xG 0.01–0.16 (7%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Kessel – Bozak12:59
xG 0.11–0.39 (22%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin11:31
xG 0.17–0.69 (20%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Komisarek – Gunnarsson11:26
xG 0.23–0.26 (47%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Schenn2:18
xG 0.04–0.14 (24%)attempts 1–5goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Phaneuf16:24
xG 0.33–0.45 (42%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Crosby5:04
xG 0.39–0.04 (91%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Malkin – Letestu – Tangradi7:31
xG 0.33–0.04 (89%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Cooke – Talbot – Kennedy9:19
xG 0.39–0.14 (73%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Adams – Dupuis – Rupp2:06
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Letang16:49
xG 0.74–0.21 (78%)attempts 17–6goals 1–1
- Hutchinson – Goligoski2:19
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Letang2:05
xG 0.20–0.03 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).