Wed, Oct 13, 2010·Honda Center, Anaheim
Vancouver Canucks 3, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 216 | 011 | 112 | 339 |
| ANA | 113 | 15 | 214 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:41ANARyan GetzlafPPAssists: Bobby Ryan, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 3:57VANDaniel SedinPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 4:14VANRaffi TorresAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Manny Malhotra · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 15:09ANATeemu SelannePPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 5:23VANChristian EhrhoffPPAssists: Alexander Edler, Daniel Sedin · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 8:54ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Brendan Mikkelson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 10:12ANABobby RyanGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:36VANPeter Schaefer: Hooking2 min
- P1 1:15VANRyan Kesler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 3:07ANACorey Perry: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 11:22ANASheldon Brookbank: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:22VANRaffi Torres: Instigator2 min
- P1 11:22VANRaffi Torres: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:22VANRaffi Torres: Misconduct10 min
- P1 11:36ANABobby Ryan: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:56VANKeith Ballard: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:16VANKevin Bieksa: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:02ANABobby Ryan: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSamuelsson – Sedin – Sedin15:34
xG 1.03–0.48 (68%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Schaefer – Malhotra – Torres8:32
xG 0.63–0.20 (76%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Kesler – Hansen – Raymond12:34
xG 0.72–0.52 (58%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
- Schaefer – Malhotra – Rypien2:20
xG 0.04–0.05 (44%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Bieksa17:08
xG 1.42–0.54 (72%)attempts 20–15goals 1–1
- Ehrhoff – Edler19:08
xG 0.80–0.39 (67%)attempts 23–16goals 0–0
- Alberts – Ballard12:00
xG 0.31–0.37 (45%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Marchant – Parros – Bodie5:31
xG 0.16–0.17 (48%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan14:54
xG 0.63–0.74 (46%)attempts 12–14goals 2–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Blake14:16
xG 0.33–0.75 (31%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
- Chipchura – Beleskey – Sexton11:13
xG 0.26–0.74 (26%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Brookbank – Sbisa11:28
xG 0.15–0.22 (41%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Visnovsky – Mikkelson18:58
xG 0.74–1.12 (40%)attempts 19–23goals 2–0
- Mara – Fowler17:14
xG 0.59–1.36 (30%)attempts 14–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).