Thu, Oct 14, 2010·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
St. Louis Blues 3, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 112 | 111 | 112 | 335 |
| NSH | 311 | 19 | 02 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:56NSHMarcel GocAssists: Colin Wilson, J-P Dumont · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 11:14NSHSteve SullivanPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Cal O'Reilly · Slap, 0.21 xG0–2
- P1 13:37STLMatt D'AgostiniAssists: Jay McClement, Alexander Steen · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–2
- P1 13:52NSHSteve SullivanAssists: Cal O'Reilly, Patric Hornqvist · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 8:15STLT.J. OshiePPUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 16:21NSHPatric HornqvistPPGWGAssists: Cal O'Reilly, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.46 xG2–4
- P3 5:13STLPatrik BerglundPPAssists: Andy McDonald, Carlo Colaiacovo · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:14NSHShane O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:14STLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:08STLBrad Boyes: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 10:18STLEric Brewer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 7:17NSHSergei Kostitsyn: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:57NSHShea Weber: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:18STLMatt D'Agostini: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:41NSHSteve Sullivan: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:38STLRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:38NSHJordin Tootoo: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:38NSHJordin Tootoo: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:57NSHJoel Ward: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Backes – Perron11:47
xG 0.42–0.22 (65%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- McClement – Steen – D'Agostini3:12
xG 0.25–0.14 (65%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- McDonald – Oshie – Berglund11:30
xG 0.31–0.22 (59%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- McClement – Steen – Crombeen3:34
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Polak14:28
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Pietrangelo11:10
xG 0.41–0.33 (56%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Jackman – Johnson15:13
xG 0.16–0.64 (20%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Ward – Kostitsyn11:40
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Smithson – Goc – Tootoo3:00
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Sullivan – O'Reilly – Hornqvist11:40
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Dumont – Goc – Wilson9:07
xG 0.25–0.27 (47%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – O'Brien3:29
xG 0.14–0.02 (89%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Klein12:37
xG 0.71–0.68 (51%)attempts 10–13goals 2–1
- O'Brien – Franson9:03
xG 0.24–0.32 (43%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).