Fri, Oct 15, 2010·Prudential Center, Newark
Colorado Avalanche 3, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 13 | 112 | 17 | 322 |
| NJD | 017 | 110 | 116 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:50COLCody McLeodPPAssists: TJ Galiardi, Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 11:48COLTJ GaliardiAssists: Chris Stewart, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 14:48NJDMatt TaorminaPPAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Patrik Elias · Slap, 0.30 xG2–1
- P3 4:31COLChris StewartGWGAssists: John-Michael Liles, Paul Stastny · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 8:49NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Matt Taormina, Matthew Corrente · Snap, 0.04 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:13COLTJ Galiardi: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:53NJDColin White: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 12:12COLCody McLeod: Boarding5 min
- P1 12:12COLCody McLeod: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 5:50NJDHenrik Tallinder: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:37COLDaniel Winnik: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 17:34NJDColin White: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:06NJDAdam Mair: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:06COLChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:52NJDRod Pelley: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:52COLAdam Foote: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – Winnik – O'Reilly8:27
xG 0.47–0.11 (81%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Stastny – Stewart – Galiardi6:43
xG 0.41–0.10 (80%)attempts 6–7goals 2–1
- Dupuis – Winnik – O'Reilly2:28
xG 0.02–0.00 (82%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Jones – Yip – Duchene9:37
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFoote – Cumiskey8:37
xG 0.80–0.07 (92%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Hannan – Quincey9:25
xG 0.35–0.10 (78%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Hannan – Liles2:09
xG 0.09–0.06 (63%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Parise – Zajac8:48
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Mair – Sestito – Pelley3:42
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Parise – Josefson3:06
xG 0.05–0.09 (36%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Clarkson – Josefson7:15
xG 0.02–0.12 (12%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Greene14:09
xG 0.43–0.28 (60%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Tallinder – Taormina2:04
xG 0.02–0.05 (32%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Corrente – Urbom10:04
xG 0.04–0.16 (21%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).