Fri, Oct 15, 2010·Madison Square Garden, New York
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, New York Rangers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 016 | 314 | 06 | 12 | 438 |
| NYR | 17 | 05 | 210 | 02 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:58NYRMichal RozsivalAssists: Sean Avery, Ruslan Fedotenko · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 2:04TORClarke MacArthurAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Luke Schenn · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 4:57TORMike KomisarekAssists: Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 7:50TORPhil KesselAssists: Tyler Bozak · Snap, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 2:10NYRBrian BoyleAssists: Derek Boogaard, Steve Eminger · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 6:19NYRBrian BoyleAssists: Sean Avery, Michael Del Zotto · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 3:08TORPhil KesselPPGWGAssists: Tyler Bozak, Tomas Kaberle · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 1:54TORKris Versteeg: Interference2 min
- P1 9:00TORClarke MacArthur: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:44NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:44TORMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:58NYRSteve Eminger: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00NYRChris Drury: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:33TORColby Armstrong: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:23NYRMichael Del Zotto: Interference2 min
- P2 7:23TORMike Brown: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 9:56NYRSean Avery: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:39TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:49NYRRuslan Fedotenko: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:49NYRSean Avery: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:54TORMike Komisarek: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:56NYRDan Girardi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- OT 2:48NYRMarc Staal: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Drury won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin9:17
xG 1.21–0.36 (77%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Versteeg – Kessel – Bozak10:24
xG 0.68–0.69 (50%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Sjostrom – Armstrong – Brent9:45
xG 0.42–0.50 (46%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Zigomanis – Orr – Brown2:44
xG 0.09–0.25 (27%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Phaneuf9:57
xG 0.82–0.35 (70%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Komisarek4:42
xG 0.64–0.16 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Komisarek – Gunnarsson2:20
xG 0.17–0.16 (51%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFedotenko – Frolov – Stepan2:37
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Boogaard – Boyle – Prust2:30
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Avery – Stepan3:20
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Drury – Gaborik – Frolov3:29
xG 0.16–0.18 (47%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Del Zotto8:59
xG 0.59–0.49 (55%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Eminger – Gilroy8:42
xG 0.27–0.39 (40%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Staal12:57
xG 0.72–1.38 (34%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).